Research / thesis · Evidence confidence: High

The Self-Inflicted Wound

A 2026 working paper presenting an argument about South Africa's economic and institutional trajectory with order-of-magnitude projections.

Working paperEconomic/political analysis
Project IDPG-039
Repositoryfuture-south-africa-analysis
StageResearch / thesis
ConfidenceHigh
Also known as
South Africa's Future Outlook

01 · Purpose

The problem

Attempts to explain a claimed fiscal/currency crisis through institutional and policy choices.

02 · Experience

How it works

Readers move through a long-form paper with thesis, historical comparisons, estimates and a downloadable document.

Users
  • Readers
  • Researchers
Technology identified
  • React 19
  • TanStack Start
  • Static publication

03 · Functional evidence

What actually exists

Verified working / present3
  • Long-form paper route
  • Downloadable DOCX reference
  • Sectioned thesis UI
Partially verified1
  • Empirical claims were not independently fact-checked during this code census
Designed / planned1
  • Further research/revision
Unknown / requires verification1
  • Peer-review/publication status

04 · Development

What remains

Finish / verify
  • Empirical claims were not independently fact-checked during this code census
Planned
  • Further research/revision
Resolve unknowns
  • Peer-review/publication status

05 · Commercial

Business model

None verified.

06 · Intellectual property

IP position

Original authored analysis.

This archive records what the available project evidence says. It does not infer legal registration, patent grant, trademark ownership or regulatory status where that has not been verified.

07 · Assessment

Strengths and limitations

Strengths

  • Full paper presentation

Limitations / risks

  • Substantive claims require rigorous source verification

08 · Evidence

What this record is grounded in

  • GitHub repository: simonmowatt1-sudo/future-south-africa-analysis
  • Repository README / project brief where available
  • Implemented home route where available
  • Published Lovable URL recorded from repository metadata

A published URL means the project metadata records a deployment address. It is not represented as runtime-tested unless a separate verification pass confirms that deployment.

09 · Genealogy

Connections

  • Research/thesis constellation
ResearchTheses

Archive principle

Unknowns stay unknown until evidence changes them.
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